Can value investing work in China market?

USA today has an interesting article regarding Chinese investors (speculator more precise) learning a tough lesson in the domestic stock market. The article used two example to explain:

(Picture source: USAtoday.com)

In October (2007), Wang, 45, invested $2,800 in a Beijing real estate firm, chosen, Wang explains, “because it’s called an ‘Olympic stock,’ and ought to do well.”
…
But now Wang’s beginner’s portfolio is down almost $1,000, over three times her previous monthly salary.
…

Example 2 (quote from the article) again:
…

China market, Ningbo Younger, Olympics

The China doemestic stock market resumed trading after a week of recess (for the Lunar New Year). To the surprise of most people and an old Chinese saying “Kai Meng Hong”, the market opened down instead of up. It appears people are still nervous about the US economy and its fallout effect to China economy.

SSE Composite Index, Happy New Year

Last night is the last trading day for Chinese domestic stock market, for the year of pig. According to Google Finance, the index is up 72.09% in the year of Pig. The index closed at 4,599.70, a tiny bit shy of 4,600. Shanghai composite has been up BIG two years in a row. Guess that’s the reason for people to take caution 🙂

(for a full size of the chart, click here)

Some Chinese stocks look cheap

(Jan 31) Read this piece from Shui Pi, a reknown Chinese stock columnist. Quote a paragraph here:
统计表明，2007年中国资本市场融资再融资的规模近8000亿，而印花税为2005亿，两者相加近10000亿，相当于流动市值的十分之一。这笔钱是从市场中拿走的，基本上不可再生。如果2008年的主板融资规模维持不变，那么再加预期中的创业板的融资规模和大非解禁的资金数量，增量资金的需求量就是一个天文数字。2008年的股市有那么乐观吗？He is saying, the transaction cost plus the new IPO last year totaled RMB 1 trillion, which is about 10% of the total market float.

(Original) After recent brutal selling of Chinese domestic market, it appears some “blue chip” stocks are fairly cheap. For instance, 600030, Citic Securities (CS), the No.1 broker (and No. 2 investment banker) in China, traded at around CNY 67.00, considering its 2007 earning of CNY 4.00 (up 400% from last year CNY 0.80), the PE ratio is about 17, not that far compared to Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), which has a PE about 10.

Why the stock is so cheap now, I mean compared to high flying couple months ago (last Oct.)?

Citic Securities 600030

I felt this baby (600030.SS) was being thrown out of bath tub when the Shanghai Composite Index dropped from 4300 to 3600, amid the raise of stamp tax. Logic here was the raise of stamp tax will reduce stock trading, which will reduce Citic’s business from trading side.  

Current Status of Chinese Stock Market

Normall I don’t comment on the general market trend (I took cue from the Oracle of Omaha because he does not predict this). But China domestic market is just too crazy in my mind. New record for the index everyday. New record for the new accounts being opened everyday. People talk about stocks everywhere. One day I heard a friend recommend a stock, the second day it jumped almost 10%. No, I hadn’t bought that particular stock because I felt I want to follow Buffett rule: buy the stuff I can understand.